Jonathan Fredman

ITAR Update – The Directorate of Defense Trade Controls has published a proposed rule to implement an AUKUS-related licensing exemption and an expedited review process. Please see my latest article summarizing the three proposed changes to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations in this rulemaking. https://lnkd.in/guna4Kkt #itar #exportcontrols #ddtc #aukus #defensetrade

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Big news from the USPTO -- the After Final Consideration Pilot Program 2.0 (#AFCP 2.0) ends December 15, 2024. The decision comes after feedback on a proposed fee to offset program costs revealed limited public support. With AFCP 2.0 ending, in-house counsel should consider updating instructions to outside counsel to: - Ensure examiner interviews are conducted whenever permitted in response to final Office actions; -Emphasize clear, concise claim amendments to facilitate examiner consideration; - Review Advisory Actions carefully for considering second amendments after final filed with RCEs when new substantive rejections are identified in the Advisory Action; - Explore alternative strategies like appeals and pre-appeal brief conferences, informed by examiner analytics data, in response to final Office Actions. The termination of AFCP 2.0 marks a significant change in patent prosecution strategy. In-house counsel should work closely with outside counsel to adapt and ensure efficient patent prosecution in this new landscape.

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ITAR & EAR News: A new ITAR proposed rule to revise defense services is coming very soon, along with EAR proposed rules to regulate activities by U.S. persons that support foreign military, security, or intelligence services. These proposed rules cleared interagency review on July 12 and should be published in the Federal Register soon. #ITAR #ExportControls #USML #DDTC #BIS

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8/3/24 National Security News and Commentary https://conta.cc/46uxddT 1. Conflict in the Gray Zone: A Prevailing Geopolitical Dynamic Through 2030   2. Updated IC Gray Zone Lexicon: Key Terms and Definitions 3. Secretary Austin Signs Memo Withdrawing From the Pre-Trial Agreements in the 9/11 Military Commission Cases 4. Defense Secretary Revokes Plea Deal for Accused Sept. 11 Plotters 5. jaw jaw or war war – reflections on the recent prison exchange 6. Kissinger vs. Blinken: A Synthetic Foreign Policy Debate 7. Russia’s top spymaster falsely claims Kremlin does not interfere in other countries’ affairs 8. Chinese communist, military writings reveal plans for strategic influence operations through TikTok 9. Community engagement can mitigate disinformation. Here’s how a Dallas editor is leading the way. 10. Airstrikes, Artificial Intelligence, and Sabotage Drive Russian Psyops 11. Russia vs Ukraine: the biggest war of the fake news era 12. Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat 13. South China Sea row high on Quad agenda with ‘message’ aimed at Beijing 14. How Disney’s Deadpool Danced Around China’s Censors—Cocaine, F-Bombs and All 15. ‘We lost sight of him’: Radio traffic shows failed search for Trump rally shooter 16. Tech Failings Plagued Secret Service at Trump Rally 17. Autocrats Wield Hostage-Taking as Potent Weapon Against West 18. Army’s long-range tiltrotor aircraft moves to next development phase 19. Why Ukraine is obsessed with the U.S. sitcom 'Friends'

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The DoD Directive 5240.01 could potentially be interpreted or misused covertly for operations that might lead to violations of civil liberties, but such actions would still require significant legal and procedural breaches. The document itself emphasizes strict oversight and high-level approval for any intelligence-related activities involving U.S. persons, and particularly for actions involving the use of force, lethal or otherwise. However, covert misuse is always a possibility when there is a lack of transparency or insufficient oversight. Some factors that could theoretically open the door to covert misuse include: 1. Ambiguities in Definitions: The document references complex legal frameworks, including the use of intelligence-related “tradecraft” and activities under Executive Orders like 12333. While these tools are meant for national security, the vague boundaries between intelligence support and active participation in law enforcement operations (especially involving lethal force) might be stretched in covert scenarios. 2. Exigent Circumstances Clause: Section 3.5 allows for immediate action by intelligence personnel without higher-level authorization when there is an imminent threat to life. This provision could be exploited in an emergency situation or under fabricated claims of immediate danger to justify the use of force. 3. Sensitive Support Activities: Some sections of the document refer to sensitive intelligence operations that are governed by other directives, such as DoDD S-5210.36, which governs covert operations. This leaves room for classified operations that may fall outside typical civilian oversight, creating a gray area where covert activities could be conducted without direct accountability, provided they are justified under national security concerns. However, these covert uses would still technically be illegal under U.S. law, as the directive requires compliance with the Constitution and federal laws, including protections for civil liberties. Misuse would likely involve bypassing or ignoring the legal oversight mechanisms outlined in the directive, which could lead to severe legal consequences if exposed. Therefore, while the directive provides tools that could be misused covertly, such actions would not be legally authorized and would rely on circumventing the extensive oversight and approval processes built into the directive. It is an unwise timing if not dangerous down the path towards potential use of the military on American citizens if it is misused or misinterpreted and applied wrongly. It leaves too much ambiguity in its application and does not provide adequate checks and balances upon decision makers. It marks potential further steps towards the breaking of the separation of powers and checks and balances. The timing of it during heightened political divisions and distrust of the federal government is inherently foolish in terms of optics serving only to increase distrust. Othniel Max Daves

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#KFF #Analysis #Finds #That #Firearms #Were #Involved #in #79Percent #of #Homicides #and #55Percent #of #Suicide #Deaths #in2022 "#Firearm-#Related #Deaths #Rose #Sharply #Over the #Last #Decade, From 92 deaths Per Day in 2012 to132 Deaths Per Day in 2022."

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“I suggest that the pursuit of American Primacy in the name of deterrence doctrine is actually aggravating regional insecurities and increasing risks of conflict. Put plainly, the pursuit of US Primacy in Asia is anathema to stability and peace in the region.” - more from my latest essay in ChinaUS Focus, which explores key issues impacting the security and future prosperity of Asia. 👇🏽 #asia #asean #security

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Anne Applebaum's latest book, "Autocracy Inc.," sheds light on the growing threat posed by the surge of autocratic regimes worldwide. From Russia, China, and Iran to semi-autocratic nations like Hungary, Turkey, and India, the book paints a chilling picture of a networked global kleptocracy adept at leveraging oppression, misinformation, and money laundering to solidify power and profit from their positions. The book highlights our alarming economic dependence on autocratic nations, exemplified by the gas trade between Russia and Germany. It underlines how such dependencies compromise our sovereignty and corrode our values and institutions over time. While the book doesn't delve into health matters, it issues a stark warning to our industry. We are too dependent on "Autocracy Inc." countries for some health technologies and commodities - remember the desperate international scramble face-masks, the military lockdown of vaccine factories and the desperate recruitment of healthcare professionals? We share sensitive health technologies and research with them in the spirit of scientific endeavour, without clear controls or accountability. However, this reliance on "Autocracy Inc." countries for critical health technologies and resources raises questions about the wisdom of such interdependence. During the pandemic, I was made painfully aware of how dependent we were on these countries. I saw how, under weak US leadership, democratic countries failed to collaborate, damaging important relationships. I saw how countries like China misled the world on key issues like the origins and spread of the virus. The consequences hit us hard. Health is a strategic asset that nations should curate and protect. This book prompts reflection on whether we should reevaluate our strategic priorities and safeguard our health assets more vigilantly.

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🗳 🇺🇸 With the pivotal U.S. election three weeks away, Bedford Analysis has been keeping an eye on foreign malign influence (FMI) campaigns in play.. 👀 If you haven't already, take a look at the U.S. Department of State and Office of the Director of National Intelligence update below 👇 Key takeaways for the Bedford election-watching community: 🔎 Foreign malign influence (FMI) campaigns will continue well after the election, with amplifications of doubt over the results. Objective: undermining trust in democratic institutions. 🔎 Russia, China, and Cuba are supporting or denigrating candidates involved in congressional, state, and local races. To determine which candidates to support or oppose, foreign actors evaluate how they think an individual candidate’s foreign policy positions affect their national security interest. 🗣 This is political - not just electoral - interference. What can be done? Get informed and talk about it! #reshare 🗣 Individuals, companies, businesses, governments, civil society, but also friends, family members and colleagues, should all be aware that this is a real and present threat which authorities are mitigating day-by-day, as you can read below👇 #geopolitics #ODNI #freeandfair #opensociety #safeguarding #democraticinstitutions https://lnkd.in/eByw2wK7

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7/1/24 National Security News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3zjiBkU 1. The Ukraine War in 2024: A Pivotal Year for the Transatlantic Alliance and World Order by John Nagl and Alexander Peris 2. A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force by John Nagl and Katie Crombe 3. How Bad Will Political Violence in the U.S. Get? 4. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2024 5. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, June 30, 2024 6. Is China at War in the South China Sea? 7. NeXt Secretary of Defense 8. IN THE KILL ZONE: The Life and Times of Willie Merkerson (Part 2) 9. Analysis | What Taiwan is learning from the war in Ukraine 10. Cambodia Denies Hosting Chinese Naval Base, but Two Ships Raise Suspicions 11. For Ukraine and Russia, a Deadly Summer Lies Ahead With Little Hope of Big Gains 12. Analysis: How ready is China’s military? Dramatic downfall of two defense ministers raises questions 13. Commentary: The world came dangerously close to full-scale conflict in the South China Sea 14. Army Futures Command's Gen. Rainey reflects on AI's potential in modern warfare 15. This is how the US-built pier to bring aid to Gaza has worked — or not 16. Forgotten Wars: The Civil War in Myanmar 17. Could AI help US intelligence end decades-long aversion to unclassified data? 18. NATO Should Think Big About the Indo-Pacific 19. Trump the Realist: The Former President Understands the Limits of American Power 20. 'In the spirit of humanitarianism': China, the Philippines jointly rescue stranded Filipino fishermen in South China Sea 21. Immigration Is Behind the Strong U.S. Economy 22. War Books, Special Edition – Seventeen Great War Films: One Army Officer’s List 23. Making Sense of the Populist Present—1

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Friends - Here's the first of the three posts on the bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission top recommendations (apologies for multiple posts). Here's the TL;DR version: It's time the U.S. Government sprints to an AGI capability. It's a strategic imperative. 🌐 AGI: A Strategic Imperative 🌐 Whether it arrives tomorrow or years from now, AGI is coming. Its definition is contested, but it broadly refers to AI systems that match or exceed human capabilities across all cognitive domains. AGI would surpass the sharpest human minds at every task—from writing novels and proving theorems to strategic planning and scientific discovery. The country that first develops AGI capabilities will almost certainly secure strategic autonomy, gaining a competitive edge in research, innovation, and economic growth, while reshaping the global balance of power. AGI could analyze vast data sets and provide insights critical to national security and defense. That’s why the Commission's number one recommendation is a large-scale, moonshot Manhattan Project-like sprint to achieve AGI. Here's the bipartisan recommendation: 1️⃣. Congress establish and fund a Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability. AGI is generally defined as systems that are as good as or better than human capabilities across all cognitive domains and would usurp the sharpest human minds at every task. Among the specific actions the Commission recommends for Congress: ➡ Provide broad multiyear contracting authority to the executive branch and associated funding for leading artificial intelligence, cloud, and data center companies and others to advance the stated policy at a pace and scale consistent with the goal of U.S. AGI leadership; and ➡ Direct the U.S. secretary of defense to provide a Defense Priorities and Allocations System “DX Rating” to items in the artificial intelligence ecosystem to ensure this project receives national priority. #USPolicy #ArtificialIntelligence #AGI #Biotechnology #TechPolicy Thank you again to all of my commissioner and staff colleagues for all of their collegiality and hard work, including Robin Cleveland, PhD, LPC, Reva Price, Aaron Friedberg, Kim Glas, Carte Goodwin, Jacob Helberg, Leland Miller, Randy Schriver, Cliff Sims, Jonathan N. Stivers, Michael Wessel, Mike Castellano, Jameson Cunningham, and many others. Here's the link for folks that want to check out the FULL report: https://lnkd.in/erqNVxxF Here's where to find the Executive Summary: https://lnkd.in/eWwCCd5A Here's where to find the Recommendations: https://lnkd.in/epykgGSC

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My piece for Gulf States Institute exploring why there is such indifference to today's presidential election and its outcome across the Gulf. In short: Anger and disillusionment over the Gaza war and rising confidence in their own national direction means Gulf publics are not as invested in U.S. politics. https://lnkd.in/eeS-rfb3

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INFCIRC/540 Article 11 provides for a simplified inspector designation procedure, effectively turning it from an "opt-in" to an "opt-out" process. States have to actively oppose the designation of an inspector to their State, rather than actively accept. For most of the first fifty years, the designation of inspectors was an odd battle front of the Cold War. In some cases, States would only accept the designation of inspectors from Western-aligned States or USSR-aligned States. Some States insisted on a balanced list of inspectors accepting only an equal number of inspectors from Western-aligned and USSR-aligned States, some going so far as insisting on them being proposed in balanced pairs. Other oddities related to other geopolitical concerns. The European Union would not accept the designation of any Indonesian inspector as Portugal would block them over the status of East Timor (now Timor Leste). A number of NPT States do not accept designation of inspectors from Non-NPT States. One MENA State simply did not respond to any of the IAEA's requests for inspector designations and so there were, formally, no inspectors designated to that State for a very long time. On a personal note, during the 1990s my designation to Malaysia was blocked because Australian PM Keating used the word "recalcitrant" to describe Malaysian PM Mahathir. In effect, the designation block was a Malaysian retaliatory sanction against Australia. When I rejoined the IAEA in 2011, this "block" was still in place and caused some confusion in the protocol area of the IAEA as they tried to sort out its status. The protocol officers were very confused by my explanation of why the block had been put in place. As noted by Mark Goodman in a comment on an earlier post on INFCIRC/540 Article 1, Article 11 represents a substantive difference between the AP and CSA procedures and is intended to replace the earlier more cumbersome procedure in its entirety. A very solid, three-volume, negotiating history for the process that lead to INFCIRC/540 can be found at the following links: https://lnkd.in/g3nZvXQm https://lnkd.in/gM9UNxcP https://lnkd.in/ge3Jr2Ht

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9/2/24 National Security News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3TgB3Sy 1. The Resurrection of the Jedburgh Team Concept in Ukraine 2. U.S. Department of State Concludes $200 Million Settlement Resolving Export Violations by RTX Corporation 3. U.S. Soldiers Could Fly into Combat on Powered Paragliders 4. China’s One Belt One Road is a spectacular domino of failed projects 5. Ukraine's Bradley Fighting Vehicle Dilemma Won't Go Away 6. Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine: Russia's Strategic Playbook with China, Iran, and North Korea 7. China Is Playing Games With the US in the Pacific 8. 100 days into the job, Taiwan’s new leader is cutting mainland ties by reframing history 9. Ex-UNSC chief backs bid for permanent seat by India, ‘world’s third-most powerful country' 10. Analysts Say Ukraine Strikes On Russian Power Plants Hurt Putin’s War Effort 11. Analysis: China's economic malaise seen accelerating obesity rates 12. The danger of AI in war: it doesn’t care about self-preservation 13. US Navy Brings Big-Deck Amphib to Protect Philippines 14. Ukraine Takes War to Russia With Drone Strikes but Struggles to Inflict Pain on Putin 15. ‘Moving in the Dark’: Hamas Documents Show Tunnel Battle Strategy 16. Gao Zhen, Artist Who Critiqued the Cultural Revolution, Is Detained in China 17. ‘Dark’ tanker crash exposes dangers of China’s thirst for cheap oil 18. Why the Free Market Is Hard to Defend 19. Ukraine’s Gamble 20. Peacekeepers Need Peacemakers

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This week, Mohammed Azharuddin Chhipa of Virginia, was convicted for providing material support to ISIS. This conviction reflects years of meticulous investigation and collaboration among US and international law enforcement agencies. TRM Labs is proud to have supported law enforcement in this investigation. There has been a lot of inaccurate reporting over the last year about the scale of crypto in terrorist financing. The reality is that while terrorist organizations - especially ISIS - and their supporters have been experimenting with cryptocurrencies to raise and send funds, crypto remains a small piece in the larger terror financing puzzle. Chhipa’s case is an instructive example. Between October 2019 and October 2022, Chhipa orchestrated an elaborate scheme to funnel financial support to ISIS. Posing as a humanitarian through an active social media presence, he solicited donations purportedly for assisting women and families in Syrian camps such as al-Hol. In 2022 TRM wrote an in-depth piece on fundraising at camps like al-Hol. Chhipa’s operations were multifaceted. He collected funds through electronic transfers, in-person cash pickups, and international channels. These funds were then converted into cryptocurrency, primarily Bitcoin, which was transferred to accounts in Turkey. From there, the money was smuggled into Syria to support ISIS members. Over the course of his activities, Chhipa raised over $188,000, with at least $18,000 traced directly to ISIS fundraising campaigns. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) investigation into Chhipa began over a decade ago, but was reinvigorated around 2019 when an agent identified Chhipa posting pro-ISIS material on social media. The search uncovered a trove of extremist materials, including videos glorifying ISIS violence, bomb-making instructions, and propaganda advocating for jihad. Chhipa’s digital footprint also revealed thousands of encrypted communications and transactions aimed at evading detection. Fearing imminent arrest, Chhipa attempted to flee the United States. In a carefully orchestrated escape, he abandoned his vehicle, withdrew cash, and purchased a series of bus tickets using aliases and newly created email accounts. His journey took him through Mexico, Guatemala, and Panama, with Egypt as his intended destination. However, a swift Interpol Blue Notice issued by US authorities led to his detention and return to the United States before he could reach Egypt. During the investigation, the FBI used blockchain intelligence to connect Chhipa’s transactions to specific fundraising campaigns identified as supporting ISIS fighters and prison escapes. Undercover agents and confidential informants corroborated these findings through recorded communications, in which Chhipa openly expressed his ideological commitment to ISIS and his belief in the importance of financial contributions to the jihadist cause.

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6/8/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/4aPDD7L 1. Voice of America: [Washington Talk] “Military agreement suspended, Korean military ‘shackles’ lifted… “Information warfare must be expanded across the board.” 2. North Korea—The Forgotten Human Rights Crisis 3. North Korea recalls documentary about Kim Jong Un’s mother 4. America’s Military Strategy: Can We Handle Two Wars at Once? 5. Kim Jong Un 'polite' and Trump 'practical'? Former leader's kind words cause an uproar 6. An American Company Enabled a North Korean Scam That Raised Money for WMDs 7. Dissecting Propaganda: Using AI to Cut Through North Korean TV Spin 8. It's Getting Heated—and Filthy—on the Korean Peninsula 9. Building Trust, Building Peace: Role Of Confidence-Building Measures On Korean Peninsula 10. Russia’s war in Ukraine has turned South Korea into a manufacturing hotspot 11. Deterring North Korean aggression remains primary goal, new fighter wing commander says 12. US warns North Korea against providing Putin platform for war aims 13. Surpass the Cutting Edge: Reflections on North Korea’s Failed May 27 Satellite Launch 14. N. Korea sends balloons carrying trash to S. Korea again: JCS 15. At UN, North Koreans beg China to stop sending escapees back 16. N. Korea, China, Russia expanding nuclear arsenals at ‘breakneck’ pace: White House official 17. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 3rd round of defense cost-sharing negotiations in Washington next week

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My paper concludes that the legal status of Taiwan remains undetermined, though Beijing’s political efforts may result over time in its achieving de facto sovereignty over Taiwan despite its current lack of de jure sovereignty. … Also as a declarative state, Taiwan has an inherent right to self defense, and to the defense support of other willing states.

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7/23/24 National Security News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3LDorAF 1. US risks learning the wrong lessons about Ukraine’s drones, expert says 2. Secret Service Director’s Testimony Sparks Bipartisan Calls for Her Resignation 3. Clueless at the Secret Service 4. Biden Drops Out, the Dangers of a Lame-Duck President Emerge 5. The Post-Biden Foreign Policy 6. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2024 7. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, July 22, 2024 8. To Secure the Red Sea, Sink Iran’s Navy 9. Israel Risks All-Out War With Hezbollah. A Truce in Gaza May Reduce That Threat. 10. War, Adaptation and AI by Mick Ryan 11. Countering Chinese Aggression in the South China Sea 12. Israel’s Next War 13. America’s Dilemma in Kenya 14. NATO’s New Mission: Keep America in, Russia Down, and China Out 15. Ukraine confronts labor shortage as need for soldiers drains workforce 16. Can Biden’s arsenal-of-democracy foreign policy outlast him? 17. Pentagon’s new Arctic strategy focuses on adversaries, new technologies 18. Can Hamas Be Left to Defeat Itself? Debating the Endgame in Gaza 19. US warns Chinese banks over Russian shipments 20. Opinion: Project 2025 would slash veterans' hard-earned benefits   21. Why does China care about a rust bucket in the middle of the sea?

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